In the movie Elizabeth, about the first Queen Elizabeth, not the current one, The Queen is facing war with France and Spain. It’s on the eve of the sailing of the Spanish Armada. The Queen says, “I dislike war. The outcome is so unpredictable.”
So it is with elections.
The new administration has the world’s travel trade in turmoil.
A Travelzoo poll done before Donald Trump’s win was announced found that 31% of Brits would reconsider travel to the US. 20% said they definitely would not go. The Travelzoo poll predicted an unstable 2017 for the US, but a good year for Canadian tourism. Cheapflights said that as the election campaign progressed they saw a decline in preference for the US as a destination and in the last week bookings declined 52%.
Cheapflights also said that overnight searches for one-way flights from the US to Canada were 133% more than a month ago.
On election night the website for Canadian immigration crashed under the weight of searches.
A Travelmole poll says 58% of UK travel professionals thought a Trump presidency would be bad for business. US travel professionals were slightly more optimistic, with just 52% thinking it would be bad.
In the week before the election, Euromonitor published a paper which said Trump’s promise to ban Muslim travel to the US could cost up to $71 billion a year and cost 132,000 jobs. They also said AirBnB and Expedia could be hurt, given their property listings and courting of business to and from Mexico and South America. The Euromonitor report also wondered about the impact of a Trump/Pence administration on the fast-growing female and gay markets. (In office Governor Pence has adhered to his fundamentalist beliefs to take anti-gay and anti-choice positions.)
In the spring of 2016 we saw how a string of discriminatory state laws negatively impacted the meetings sector. For example, when North Carolina passed a “bathroom bill” which discriminated against LGBT people, a number of business and professional groups pulled their business from the state.
I wonder what impact a Trump presidency will have on AirBnB? Given that Trump is a hotelier, how open will his administration be to this type of competition? I realize he will be expected to put his business affairs in a blind trust, but will a Republican-dominated Congress ignore this type of business and not try to regulate it more? Will companies, which now allow their people to use AirBnB, feel comfortable continuing their corporate policy?
And what does this presidency mean to foreign groups? Obviously, some nationalities aren’t going to feel comfortable coming to the US for business. In 2011 Boston Economics determined that slow VISA approvals for delegates hoping to attend US-based trade shows were costing the US industry over $2.6 billion a year. That broke down to $1.5 billion in lost business-to-business trade; $540 million in lost registration fees and exhibition space spending; and $295 million in visitor spending. Reversing this lost business would translate into 43,000 new jobs and $750 million dollars in state and federal taxes.
The VISA process has improved, but will the new administration’s positions impact attendance by certain ethnic groups, gay delegates and their supporters?
The other question is how the new administration will impact sun destinations. Are US businesses going to feel comfortable hosting events in Mexico? Will Mexican businesses and representatives feel comfortable participating in events in the US? Could the new Washington, with it’s America-centric position, take a dim view towards those groups who don’t use a US-based destination for their event?
Then we turn to the Caribbean. The Obama Administration has been opening doors to Cuba. American Airlines have started flying there. Marriott has opened a Havana hotel and announced plans for others. Several cruise lines are negotiating to include it in their itineraries. If President Trump rolls back all of President Obama’s legacy, what does that do to the future of Cuba-US relations? That impacts not just Cuba, but the rest of the Caribbean as individuals and groups have to rethink reservations or future plans.
There’s a lot to consider about the impact of this administration on the travel and meetings sector.